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Last week, the prime minister said that the recession is not over - but nobody seems to have told Toronto Real Estate homebuyers. Even the torrential downpours didn't keep them indoors.
In the first two weeks of August, realtors in the GTA reported 3,832 sales, a 27% increase on the numbers for the same period last year. The Toronto Real Estate Board said this week that the average price for resale transactions was $383,796, that is, a 3% year-over-year rise.
"The results for the first half of August indicate that many households in the GTA remain confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term," said TREB president Tom Lebour in a release.
Total sales for the year so far - 54,303 - showed a marginal rise on the same period last year when 54,138 homes were sold. The average price for these sales was $385,603. This is a drop of less than 0.5% on the average price for the same period last year. TREB's senior manager of market analysis says these sales will be good for the wider economy.
"Strong resale housing demand will contribute to broader economic recovery as each transaction results in substantial spin-off benefits to other sectors of the economy," said Jason Mercer in a release.
South of the border, home builders said they were becoming increasingly optimistic. According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, the confidence of builders in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose one point in August to reach its highest point since June of last year.
"One very positive aspect of [this] report is the big gain registered in the component gauging home builders' expectations for the next six months," notes NAHB chief economist David Crowe. "There is definitely a sense of hope among builders that the worst of the downturn is over and that a turning point is near at hand."
However, while the housing market in the U.S. is showing signs of life, any gains come on top of a very low starting point.
"Builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers also jumped to the highest level since June 2008, and is now up 23% year-on-year - this points to a continued improvement in new home sales in the months ahead," notes Robert Kavcic at BMO Capital Markets Economics. "Demand conditions are getting better, but they're still in the dumps."
Builder sentiment may have risen in August but actual numbers for building permits and housing starts for July were both down.
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, building permit numbers fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000, a 1.8% drop from the revised June numbers. The annual rate of decline is now 39.4% year-on-year. While this looks dismal, it is an improvement on the 51.4% year-over-year drop in June. Worthy of note is the fourth straight monthly rise in the usually more stable single-family segment.
"Most of the gains were seen in the single-family portion of the report, with the declines coming solely from the volatile multi-family category," notes Ian Pollick, economics strategist at TD Securities. "Single-family permits advanced to 458,000 from 433,000 the prior month, while multi-family units declined to 102,000 from 137,000 the prior month.
Permit numbers indicate likely future construction. Actual housing starts also fell in July.
Housing starts dropped 1% to 581,000 annualized units in July. This brought to an end a two-month winning streak.
"Though still down 38% from a year ago and less than half the rate of household formation, total starts remain well above April's all-time low of 479,000 units," notes Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "A fourth straight and sizeable advance in single-unit permits suggests the trend remains upwards. The housing market remains on the road to recovery due to good affordability. However, it's probably relegated to the slow lane until joblessness and credit standards ease."

